Nvidia Earnings: The $55 Billion AI Referendum That Will Decide the Market’s Next Move

Part 1: Market on Edge: Futures Rise as Investors Brace for Nvidia’s “Industry-Wide Truth Serum”

The U.S. stock market is starting the week of November 17, 2025, on the “front foot,” with futures contracts pointing decisively higher as investors position themselves for a high-stakes, data-heavy week.

Risk appetite has shown a marked improvement following last week’s volatility. As of Monday morning, futures on the S&P 500 have gained 0.6%. Contracts for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 are leading the charge, rising a full 1.0%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are ticking up 0.2%. This follows a mixed and choppy prior week, where the Dow and S&P 500 finished lower, and a sharp selloff in high-valuation tech stocks pulled the Nasdaq down.

This Monday morning rally is not built on concrete news. Rather, it is a rally built on pure anticipation. Market participants are explicitly “looking ahead” to two pivotal, risk-defining events that will set the market’s tone for the remainder of 2025.

The first is the release of long-delayed economic data, most notably the September jobs report, which is finally emerging after a record-long government shutdown. The second, and far more critical, event is the quarterly earnings report from “AI-bellwether Nvidia Corp.” (NVDA).

The market’s 1.0% pre-market jump in tech futures suggests that investors are not just neutral; they are actively placing bets on a positive outcome, primarily driven by Nvidia. This creates an asymmetric risk profile. A “hope premium” is being priced into the market before a single number has been released. If this week’s key reports—especially Nvidia’s—fail to meet these sky-high expectations, the reversal could be as swift and severe as the initial rally, as the market is not positioned for a miss.

Part 2: The Macro-Void: Why This Week’s Data Run Is Not Business as Usual

To understand the immense pressure placed on this week’s corporate earnings, one must first understand the macroeconomic context. The market is not operating in a normal environment; it is emerging from an information blackout.

The recent 43-day government shutdown, the longest in U.S. history, has just concluded. A critical and lingering consequence of this shutdown is the “data vacuum”  it created. For 43 days, key economic data was not gathered, processed, or released.

This has left investors, corporate leaders, and, most critically, the Federal Reserve “flying blind”. As one market strategist noted, the market’s current view of the U.S. economy is “more based on vibes than verified information”. This data void creates a significant problem for the Fed, which is attempting to navigate rate policy. The probability of a December rate cut, which markets had once priced in, has fallen, and this lack of clear data severely complicates the central bank’s next move.

The first piece of major data to emerge from this blackout will be the September jobs report, scheduled for release on Thursday. However, its market impact is expected to be muted. This report is “almost seven weeks behind schedule”  and is considered a “lagging data point”, as it reflects the labour market before the shutdown began on October 1.

Worse, the White House has warned that the data for October, the month of the shutdown, “may never be released” and will be “permanently impaired”.

Therefore, the September report is viewed as a historical footnote. Consensus expectations show an economy that was already cooling significantly before the shutdown:

• Nonfarm Payrolls: Economists are forecasting a meagre addition of +45,000 to +60,000 jobs. This is a sharp deceleration from the +22,000 jobs reported in August.

• Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate is expected to remain flat at 4.3%, the same level seen in August.

This government’s failure to produce timely, reliable data has created a structural void. The market, which abhors a vacuum, must find an alternative. With the official U.S. labour report (NFP) arriving seven weeks late and the October report non-existent, investors are forced to substitute corporate profit-and-loss statements for government statistics. The earnings reports from bellwethers like Home Depot and Walmart will become proxies for consumer health.

And the earnings report from Nvidia has become a proxy for the entire capital expenditure and investment side of the U.S. economy.

Part 3: Nvidia’s $3.6 Trillion Test: The Only Report That Matters

While the jobs report is a sideshow, all investors’ eyes are on Nvidia. Analysts have framed Wednesday’s report in near-mythical terms, illustrating its outsized importance in this data vacuum.

It is being called the “AI-bellwether”, a “market referendum for the entire tech sector”, and, most aptly, an “industry-wide truth serum”.

Nvidia is no longer just a semiconductor company; it has become the “market’s proxy for the entire AI buildout”. Its chips are the essential, non-negotiable foundation for the AI ambitions of every major tech giant, including Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet. Consequently, Nvidia’s results are a direct stand-in for hyperscaler capital expenditure, sovereign AI spending, and the broader investor psychology driving the market.

This is not just analyst hyperbole. The options market provides cold, quantitative proof of this new reality.

In a stunning paradigm shift, the market is now pricing in more systemic, broad-market risk from Nvidia’s single earnings report than from the U.S. government’s own cornerstone macroeconomic data. According to analyst commentary on options pricing.

• Implied S&P 500 move from NVDA Earnings: 1.15%

• Implied S&P 500 move from Jobs Report (NFP): 1.05%

• Implied S&P 500 move from Inflation (CPI) Report: 0.90%

This data confirms a “Great Decoupling.” The market has quantifiably and explicitly determined that the P&L of one company is a more significant driver of market valuation and systemic risk than the official U.S. reports on employment and inflation. The AI infrastructure buildout, channelled entirely through Nvidia, is now perceived by traders as a more potent, centralised economic force than the “old economy” metrics the Federal Reserve is mandated to track.

In this market, Nvidia is the new macro.

Part 4: Earnings Preview: What Wall Street Expects from Nvidia (NVDA) on Wednesday

On Wednesday, November 19, 2025, after the market close, Nvidia will report its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results. The bar for success is set at an astronomically high level, with Wall Street expecting another quarter of massive, AI-fueled growth.

Synthesising consensus estimates from across Wall Street, here is the “bar” that Nvidia must clear.

• Total Revenue: A consensus range of $54.6 billion to $55.28 billion. This would represent staggering year-over-year growth of approximately 56% from the $35.08 billion reported in the same quarter last year.

• Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS): A consensus estimate between $1.23 and $1.26 per share. This implies ~54% year-over-year growth from the $0.81 per share earned a year ago. The “Most Accurate Estimate” from Zacks has trended to the high end of this range ($1.26), signalling late-stage analyst optimism.

The engine for this growth is, without question, the Data Centre segment. This division, which sells the AI chips to hyperscalers, is expected to report revenue between $48.5 billion and $49.53 billion. This single segment’s revenue is forecast to have grown 61% year-over-year.

This explosive demand is being driven by the accelerating production and shipment of Nvidia’s next-generation “Blackwell” GPU architecture. CEO Jensen Huang has previously called Blackwell “the AI platform the world has been waiting for,” and the market is now eager to see the financials back up that claim.

Nvidia Q3 FY2026 Earnings: Consensus vs. Prior Year

Part 5: The Elephant in the Room: Is This an “AI Bubble” or a New Era?

Wednesday’s report is more than just a quarterly update; it is a “make-or-break moment”  that will either validate the AI bull market or give credibility to the escalating fears of an “AI bubble”.

The market is deeply divided, and this report sits at the epicentre of the conflict between bearish sentiment and bullish fundamentals.

The Bear Case: “This Is an AI Bubble”

Fears over “lofty AI-related valuations” have been building for weeks. The bearish argument is that tech giants are spending too much, too fast, on a technology with no clear short-term return on investment, fueled in part by “circular business deals”.

This bearish sentiment is backed by high-profile “smart money” moves:

• Iconic Short-Sellers: Michael Burry, famed for predicting the 2007 subprime crisis, has revealed a massive $1.2 billion short position against Nvidia and Palantir.

• Major Investors: SoftBank recently sold its entire stake in Nvidia, a move that rattled markets and fueled concerns that a top may be in.

• Insider Selling: The most compelling bearish data point. In the last six months, Nvidia corporate insiders have executed 526 sales of their own stock and zero purchases. This includes 6 million shares sold by CEO Jen-Hsun Huang himself.

The Bull Case: “This Is a New Industrial Revolution”

Wall Street’s top analysts, however, argue that these fears are “overblown” and represent a buying opportunity.

• Demand Outstrips Supply: Citi analyst Atif Malik recently argued that Nvidia’s only problem is its inability to produce chips fast enough. In his view, AI supply will not catch up to demand until 2027.

• Customers Are Increasing Spending: The bull case is anchored by the spending plans of Nvidia’s biggest customers. Hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google have “nearly ubiquitously” guided their own capital expenditures higher into future periods to continue funding their AI efforts.

• The $500 Billion Number: The most powerful counter-argument from the bulls comes from Nvidia’s own management. The company recently disclosed it has visibility into over $500 billion in cumulative revenue for its current Blackwell and upcoming “Rubin” platforms through the end of 2026.

This sets up a high-stakes “show me the money” moment. The market is witnessing a direct conflict between bearish sentiment (insiders selling, Burry shorting) and bullish fundamentals (hyperscalers increasing capex, $500B in management visibility).

Wednesday’s report is the official, non-negotiable arbiter. If Nvidia beats estimates and, crucially, raises its forward guidance, it validates the $500 billion fundamental story and proves the bearish sentiment was just noise. If, however, Nvidia “only” meets expectations or guides flat, it will be seen as a catastrophic failure, validating the bears and confirming that the insiders were right to sell at the peak.

Part 6: Beyond the Headline: What to Watch in Nvidia’s Guidance (The “Beat and Raise”)

For a stock like Nvidia, the past is history. The Q3 numbers are secondary; the stock’s reaction will be dictated entirely by its forward guidance for Q4 and beyond.

A simple “beat” is already expected and priced in. The market, which has a history of “selling the news” on Nvidia, demands a “beat and raise”. Beyond the headline EPS and revenue, sophisticated investors will be watching four key drivers:

1. The Blackwell & Rubin Narrative: The volume and timing of the Blackwell ramp are paramount. Analysts at Susquehanna note that the higher-priced, higher-margin Blackwell Ultra and rack-scale systems are required to drive the double-digit sequential growth the market now expects. The real prize will be any qualitative commentary from CEO Jensen Huang on the next generation “Rubin” platform and any confirmation of the $500 billion order book.

2. The “Power Wall” and Data Centre Sustainability: Is 61% growth sustainable? While hyperscaler demand appears robust, a new, physical constraint is emerging: the “power wall.” Goldman Sachs estimates that data centre power demand could jump 165% by 2030. Can the U.S. electrical grid actually support this AI buildout? Huang’s commentary on this physical bottleneck will be critical.

3. Gross Margins: Nvidia’s pricing power is legendary. Management guided for 73.5% non-GAAP gross margins for Q3. If this number slips, even by 50 basis points, it would be the first tangible sign that competition or pricing pressure is finally beginning to emerge, even if revenue beats.

4. The China Wildcard: Nvidia’s $54 billion guidance excluded sales to China due to U.S. export restrictions. Last quarter, the company benefited from a $180 million release of H20 (China-specific) inventory that was sold to a customer outside China. Any update on this “unrestricted” channel or new geopolitical restrictions represents a multi-billion-dollar variable.

Ultimately, Nvidia’s stock is not valued on its Q3 or Q4 numbers. It is valued on a narrative that it is the sole, indispensable provider for a decade-long, multi-trillion-dollar industrial transformation. Huang’s language reinforces this, calling Blackwell an “exceptional generational leap” and declaring “the AI race is on”.

The most important part of the earnings call will be qualitative: Huang’s ability to re-affirm this generational narrative. Any hint of doubt—any mention of slowing capex, customer diversification, or the “power wall”—could shatter the narrative, even if the Q3 numbers are a solid beat.

Part 7: Conclusion: A Tale of Two Reports (And One Clear Winner) 

This week, the market is at a crossroads, defined by two profoundly different data points.

On one hand, we have the report from the U.S. government. On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September jobs report. It is a “lagging data point”  from a pre-shutdown world, released by an agency still recovering from a 43-day data blackout. It is a snapshot of an economy that no longer exists—a historical footnote.

On the other hand, we have the report from Nvidia. On Wednesday, the company will release its Q3 earnings. It is a forward-looking, real-time “referendum”  on the single most powerful economic driver of our time: the artificial intelligence buildout.

The market, through the options-pricing mechanism, has already voted. The government’s data failure  has, by default, elevated a single company’s P&L statement into a systemic macroeconomic event.

While the jobs report will be a footnote, Nvidia’s results—and more importantly, its guidance—will provide the “truth serum”. It will determine whether the “AI bubble”  fears are finally vanquished or if the market’s recent, painful volatility was just the beginning.